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Vietnam view

Why we look at Vietnam now. Every number names its source, year and basis; the views are HONGTHAI's.

Updated 23 October 2026

Vietnam is speeding up

  1. Q1–Q3 20269.01%
  2. Q3 20269.95%

Q3 GDP grew 9.95% year on year, the fastest since Q3 2022.

National Statistics Office of Vietnam, 3 Oct 2026 (estimate)

The rhyme: the same threshold, different paths

The table shows the year in which four economies first passed US$5,000 in GDP per capita (current US$). We use it to describe the stage Vietnam has reached, not to suggest whose path Vietnam will follow.

GDP per head US$5,00019701980199020002010202020301976Japan · 4,876 → 5,4221989South Korea · 4,889 → 5,98913 yrs2011China · 4,629 → 5,70422 yrs2025Vietnam · 4,717 → 5,06614 yrs

World Bank WDI, indicator NY.GDP.PCAP.CD, retrieved 11 Oct 2026. Vietnam's official estimate for 2025 is US$5,026. World Bank WDI, GDP per capita, current US$

Three views

01

Restaurant chains have room to grow

The two figures come from different sources on different bases. They show direction only and are not directly comparable. Conclusion: replicable categories are moving first.

Basis and sources

Chain categories · store sales growth (2025)

  1. Coffee chains+27%
  2. Tea chains+28%
Momentum Works 2026 report, via Vietnam News Agency

All F&B · revenue growth (2025)

  1. All F&B+5.5%
iPOS.vn, Vietnam F&B Market Report 2025, via Vietstock
02

Local software enters its golden age (our view)

This is our view, on three grounds. It is not a law. Income, the size of the digital economy and the user base of local apps have all reached a new scale at the same time.

Basis and sources

  1. ≈US$5,026

    Vietnam's GDP per capita in 2025, above US$5,000 for the first time

  2. ≈US$39bn

    Vietnam's digital economy in 2025 (projected), up 17%

  3. ≈81.3m

    Zalo monthly active users
03

Capital pathways are opening

If the listing proceeds, local capital gains another pathway.

Basis and sources
Today
  1. 2026.09.21FTSE Russell upgrade of Vietnam to Secondary Emerging takes effect
  2. 2027 Q1Highlands Coffee's target for a possible listing, not guaranteed

What we don't say

  • We do not say Vietnam will follow the path of China, Japan or South Korea.
  • We do not treat US$5,000 per capita as a threshold for a software boom. Our view rests on the grounds above.
  • We do not say Highlands Coffee "will list". The disclosure says the board is evaluating a listing, targeting Q1 2027, with no guarantee.
  • Vietnam and China measure restaurant chain penetration differently (Vietnam by revenue, China by store count), so we read the two figures for scale only and do not compare them directly.

Watch

Vietnam, explainedExplainer · 4 min 15 s · Chinese voice-over

Say It Again: Chinese–Vietnamese cultural differences

For brands entering Vietnam, the hard part is often not translation. The same zodiac, forms of address, festivals and food often have a different meaning in Vietnam. Each episode is under a minute (in Chinese).

  1. Vietnam has no Year of the Rabbit
  2. How Chinese and Vietnamese address people
  3. What Vietnamese families do at Tết
  4. How much is a lạng in Vietnam?
  5. Why southern Vietnamese avoid bananas at Tết
  6. Mid-Autumn in Vietnam is for children
  7. Vietnam has two Women's Days
  8. Why Vietnamese coffee has egg in it
  9. Why Vietnamese drink beer with ice

Sources

  1. National Statistics Office of Vietnam, 3 Oct 2026 (estimate)
  2. National Statistics Office of Vietnam estimate, via Vietnam Government News, 5 Jan 2026
  3. World Bank WDI, GDP per capita, current US$
  4. Momentum Works 2026 report, via Vietnam News Agency
  5. iPOS.vn, Vietnam F&B Market Report 2025, via Vietstock
  6. Google, Temasek and Bain, e-Conomy SEA 2025 (projection)
  7. VNG disclosure, Q2 2026
  8. Jollibee disclosure, 4 Mar 2026, Reuters report via Tuổi Trẻ
  9. FTSE Russell announcement, 7 Oct 2025; confirmed 7 Apr 2026

For media citations or interviews: Work with us · Media

FAQ

Why is Vietnam at a pivotal stage?

Vietnam's GDP per capita was about US$5,026 in 2025, above US$5,000 for the first time, and GDP grew about 9.01% in the first nine months of 2026 (National Statistics Office estimates).

Can these figures be trusted?

Every figure names its institution, year and basis, with a link to the original. Where figures differ, the original source prevails.

Is this investment advice?

No. These are our observations and views on the Vietnamese market, not investment advice.

How can we discuss this further?

Leave us a message on the contact page or email info@hongthaix.com.